Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
